Yeovil Town W 0–4 Manchester City W: Result & Stats

Yeovil Town W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester City W

11/25/2018

FA WSL · Round 6Jewson Stadium (Dorchester, Dorset)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Yeovil Town W6%

×Draw12%

Manchester City W82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeovil Town WExpected goals in this matchManchester City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.66

2.92

Yeovil Town W

0.66

Manchester City W

2.92

Manchester City W creates 342% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

0.38

creates per match

2.31

3.54

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Yeovil Town W

0.38

Manchester City W

2.31

allows per match

Yeovil Town W

3.54

Manchester City W

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeovil Town W+0.00on par

Manchester City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeovil Town W ↓

Manchester City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–212%

0–312%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Yeovil Town W or draw

18%

Yeovil Town W or Manchester City W

88%

Draw or Manchester City W

94%

Winning margin

Yeovil Town W wins by 2+

1%

Manchester City W wins by 2+

63%

Team goals

Yeovil Town W 1+ goals

48%

Yeovil Town W 2+ goals

14%

Yeovil Town W 3+ goals

3%

Manchester City W 1+ goals

94%

Manchester City W 2+ goals

78%

Manchester City W 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Yeovil Town W (draw refunded)

7%

Manchester City W (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeovil Town W at home — creates 0.38, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

Manchester City W away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeovil Town W attack 0.38 + Manchester City W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.66

Manchester City W attack 2.31 + Yeovil Town W defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Yeovil Town W scores more

6%

level

12%

Manchester City W scores more

82%

Manchester City W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff