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Manchester City W vs Yeovil Town W — FA WSL 2018

Manchester City W
Manchester City W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Yeovil Town W
Yeovil Town W
4/28/2019FA WSLFA WSL · Round 11Academy Stadium (Manchester)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Manchester City W81%
×Draw12%
Yeovil Town W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City W
2.92
Yeovil Town W
0.76

Manchester City W creates 284% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 12 away

creates per match

Manchester City W
2.91
Yeovil Town W
0.67

allows per match

Manchester City W
0.84
Yeovil Town W
2.92

finishing

Manchester City W+0.00on par
Yeovil Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City W ↓

Yeovil Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Manchester City W or draw
93%
Manchester City W or Yeovil Town W
88%
Draw or Yeovil Town W
19%

Winning margin

Manchester City W wins by 2+
61%
Yeovil Town W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Manchester City W 1+ goals
94%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
78%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
55%
Yeovil Town W 1+ goals
53%
Yeovil Town W 2+ goals
18%
Yeovil Town W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Manchester City W (draw refunded)
92%
Yeovil Town W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Yeovil Town W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City W attack 2.91 + Yeovil Town W defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.92

Yeovil Town W attack 0.67 + Manchester City W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Manchester City W scores more
81%
level
12%
Yeovil Town W scores more
7%

Manchester City W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Manchester City W 2–1 Yeovil Town W

Manchester City W beat Yeovil Town W 2-1 in FA WSL on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Academy Stadium (Manchester).