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Yeovil Town W vs Birmingham City W — FA WSL 2018

Yeovil Town W
Yeovil Town W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Birmingham City W
Birmingham City W
5/11/2019FA WSLFA WSL · Round 12Jewson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Yeovil Town W18%
×Draw19%
Birmingham City W62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeovil Town W
1.16
Birmingham City W
2.29

Birmingham City W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 38 away

creates per match

Yeovil Town W
0.40
Birmingham City W
0.97

allows per match

Yeovil Town W
3.60
Birmingham City W
1.92

finishing

Yeovil Town W+0.00on par
Birmingham City W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeovil Town W ↓

Birmingham City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Yeovil Town W or draw
38%
Yeovil Town W or Birmingham City W
81%
Draw or Birmingham City W
82%

Winning margin

Yeovil Town W wins by 2+
7%
Birmingham City W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Yeovil Town W 1+ goals
69%
Yeovil Town W 2+ goals
32%
Yeovil Town W 3+ goals
11%
Birmingham City W 1+ goals
90%
Birmingham City W 2+ goals
66%
Birmingham City W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Yeovil Town W (draw refunded)
23%
Birmingham City W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeovil Town W at home — creates 0.40, concedes 3.60 · 10 matches

Birmingham City W away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeovil Town W attack 0.40 + Birmingham City W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Birmingham City W attack 0.97 + Yeovil Town W defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Yeovil Town W scores more
18%
level
19%
Birmingham City W scores more
62%

Birmingham City W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Birmingham City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Yeovil Town W 0–2 Birmingham City W

Birmingham City W beat Yeovil Town W 2-0 in FA WSL on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Jewson Stadium.