Birmingham City W 2–1 Yeovil Town W: Result & Stats

Birmingham City W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Yeovil Town W

12/2/2018

FA WSL · Round 6Damson Park (Solihull, West Midlands)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Birmingham City W53%

×Draw23%

Yeovil Town W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham City WExpected goals in this matchYeovil Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.15

Birmingham City W

1.81

Yeovil Town W

1.15

Birmingham City W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 12 away

0.71

creates per match

0.67

1.63

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Birmingham City W

0.71

Yeovil Town W

0.67

allows per match

Birmingham City W

1.63

Yeovil Town W

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham City W+0.00on par

Yeovil Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham City W ↓

Yeovil Town W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Birmingham City W or draw

76%

Birmingham City W or Yeovil Town W

77%

Draw or Yeovil Town W

47%

Winning margin

Birmingham City W wins by 2+

29%

Yeovil Town W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Birmingham City W 1+ goals

84%

Birmingham City W 2+ goals

54%

Birmingham City W 3+ goals

27%

Yeovil Town W 1+ goals

68%

Yeovil Town W 2+ goals

32%

Yeovil Town W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Birmingham City W (draw refunded)

69%

Yeovil Town W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham City W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

Yeovil Town W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham City W attack 0.71 + Yeovil Town W defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 1.81

Yeovil Town W attack 0.67 + Birmingham City W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Birmingham City W scores more

53%

level

23%

Yeovil Town W scores more

24%

Birmingham City W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Birmingham City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff