Yenisey II 0–2 Dinamo Vologda: Result & Stats

Yenisey II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Vologda

S. Sarsenov 90'

D. Dolgov 34'

8/3/2025

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Yenisey II37%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Vologda38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yenisey IIExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vologda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.38

Yenisey II

1.36

Dinamo Vologda

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 60 away

1.40

creates per match

1.13

1.64

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Yenisey II

1.40

Dinamo Vologda

1.13

allows per match

Yenisey II

1.64

Dinamo Vologda

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yenisey II+0.00on par

Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey II ↓

Dinamo Vologda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Yenisey II or draw

62%

Yenisey II or Dinamo Vologda

74%

Draw or Dinamo Vologda

63%

Winning margin

Yenisey II wins by 2+

17%

Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Yenisey II 1+ goals

74%

Yenisey II 2+ goals

39%

Yenisey II 3+ goals

16%

Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals

40%

Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Yenisey II (draw refunded)

49%

Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.64 · 77 matches

Dinamo Vologda away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey II attack 1.40 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.13 + Yenisey II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yenisey II scores more

37%

level

26%

Dinamo Vologda scores more

38%

Dinamo Vologda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Vologda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

32'

34'

38'

39'

44'

58'

K. Porshunov← A. Yudin

63'

S. Oliynik← E. Eliseenko

63'

A. Betyuzhnov← I. Gubzhokov

65'

D. Livanov← V. Skavysh

65'

E. Shupyakov← A. Chulkov

66'

S. Sarsenov← A. Shabolin

76'

S. Komar← D. Spodarets

77'

E. Shupyakov

81'

D. Borzenkov← I. Oborocha

81'

I. Mamavko← A. Gubanov

90'

90+3'

90+3'

90'

Yenisey

Dinamo

77

74

18

2

12

⚽

Dolgov

13

Lyamzin

19

▼

Spodarets

22

Kireev

70

▼

Gubzhokov

36

▼

Shabolin

7

▼

Eliseenko

79

Yunusov

83

Ambroseno

74

▼

Chulkov

58

Pokrovski

66

▼

Yudin

78

Egorov

81

Tashov

97

▼

Skavysh

95

▼

Oborocha

54

Gololobov

92

▼

Gubanov

Manager: A. Kishinevskiy

58'▲K. Porshunov←▼A. Yudin

65'▲D. Livanov←▼V. Skavysh

65'▲E. Shupyakov←▼A. Chulkov

81'▲D. Borzenkov←▼I. Oborocha

81'▲I. Mamavko←▼A. Gubanov

Yenisey II substitutes

56Epifantsev86Serdyukov67Borzenkov65Vishnyakov70Egorov51Livanov91Novik39Mamavko57Shupyakov71Porshunov69Lapitsky73Valkov

Manager: R. Chesalov

63'▲S. Oliynik←▼E. Eliseenko

63'▲A. Betyuzhnov←▼I. Gubzhokov

66'▲S. Sarsenov←▼A. Shabolin

76'▲S. Komar←▼D. Spodarets

Dinamo Vologda substitutes

51Gusev21Rukhmakov91Komar6Oliynik20Meshalkin23Gioev27Betyuzhnov11Sarsenov

Match Recap: Yenisey II vs Dinamo Vologda

Dinamo Vologda beat Yenisey II 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 3, 2025.

Goals: D. Dolgov (34'), S. Sarsenov (90').

Yenisey II vs Dinamo Vologda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Yenisey II vs Dinamo Vologda