Dinamo Vologda 2–0 Yenisey II: Result & Stats

Dinamo Vologda

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yenisey II

E. Eliseenko 68'

S. Sarsenov 48'

10/6/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dinamo Vologda61%

×Draw21%

Yenisey II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VologdaExpected goals in this matchYenisey II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.96

Dinamo Vologda

1.97

Yenisey II

0.96

Dinamo Vologda creates 105% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 76 away

1.64

creates per match

0.92

1.00

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Dinamo Vologda

1.64

Yenisey II

0.92

allows per match

Dinamo Vologda

1.00

Yenisey II

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par

Yenisey II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vologda ↓

Yenisey II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Vologda or draw

82%

Dinamo Vologda or Yenisey II

79%

Draw or Yenisey II

39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+

36%

Yenisey II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals

58%

Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals

31%

Yenisey II 1+ goals

62%

Yenisey II 2+ goals

25%

Yenisey II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)

77%

Yenisey II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vologda at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

Yenisey II away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.64 + Yenisey II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.97

Yenisey II attack 0.92 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Vologda scores more

61%

level

21%

Yenisey II scores more

18%

Dinamo Vologda at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Vologda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

S. Sarsenov

56'

Artem Nadolskiy← A. Gubanov

66'

E. Eliseenko← S. Sarsenov

68'

E. Eliseenko

77'

A. Medvedkov← V. Kravtsov

77'

K. Porshunov← D. Fedorenko

81'

I. Rodionov← D. Dolgov

81'

M. Meshalkin← N. Kireev

90'

V. Pronin← D. Yugaldin

90'

V. Belyaev← A. Betyuzhnov

Dinamo

Yenisey

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Sarsenov

Manager: R. Chesalov

66'▲E. Eliseenko←▼S. Sarsenov

81'▲I. Rodionov←▼D. Dolgov

81'▲M. Meshalkin←▼N. Kireev

90'▲V. Pronin←▼D. Yugaldin

90'▲V. Belyaev←▼A. Betyuzhnov

Dinamo Vologda substitutes

EliseenkoRodionovMeshalkinProninBelyaev

Manager: A. Kishinevskiy

56'▲Artem Nadolskiy←▼A. Gubanov

77'▲A. Medvedkov←▼V. Kravtsov

77'▲K. Porshunov←▼D. Fedorenko

Yenisey II substitutes

NadolskiyMedvedkovPorshunov