Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yenisey II vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Yenisey II
Yenisey II
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
8/14/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Yenisey II37%
×Draw25%
Baltika BFU38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yenisey II
1.41
Baltika BFU
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 53 away

creates per match

Yenisey II
1.40
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Yenisey II
1.64
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Yenisey II+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey II ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Yenisey II or draw
62%
Yenisey II or Baltika BFU
75%
Draw or Baltika BFU
63%

Winning margin

Yenisey II wins by 2+
17%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Yenisey II 1+ goals
76%
Yenisey II 2+ goals
41%
Yenisey II 3+ goals
17%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
76%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
42%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Yenisey II (draw refunded)
49%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.64 · 77 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey II attack 1.40 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Yenisey II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yenisey II scores more
37%
level
25%
Baltika BFU scores more
38%

Baltika BFU at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Yenisey II 3–4 Baltika BFU

Baltika BFU beat Yenisey II 4-3 in Second League - Group 2 on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.