Baltika BFU 3–0 Yenisey II: Result & Stats

Baltika BFU

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yenisey II

4/21/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Baltika BFU55%

×Draw24%

Yenisey II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baltika BFUExpected goals in this matchYenisey II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.02

Baltika BFU

1.76

Yenisey II

1.02

Baltika BFU creates 73% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 76 away

1.22

creates per match

0.92

1.11

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Baltika BFU

1.22

Yenisey II

0.92

allows per match

Baltika BFU

1.11

Yenisey II

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Yenisey II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika BFU ↓

Yenisey II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Baltika BFU or draw

78%

Baltika BFU or Yenisey II

76%

Draw or Yenisey II

45%

Winning margin

Baltika BFU wins by 2+

30%

Yenisey II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Baltika BFU 1+ goals

83%

Baltika BFU 2+ goals

52%

Baltika BFU 3+ goals

26%

Yenisey II 1+ goals

64%

Yenisey II 2+ goals

27%

Yenisey II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)

71%

Yenisey II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika BFU at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Yenisey II away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika BFU attack 1.22 + Yenisey II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.76

Yenisey II attack 0.92 + Baltika BFU defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Baltika BFU scores more

55%

level

24%

Yenisey II scores more

22%

Baltika BFU at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff