Yeni Malatyaspor 1–4 Şanlıurfaspor: Result & Stats

Yeni Malatyaspor

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Şanlıurfaspor

H. Atcı 82'

Ç. Giritlioğlu 79'

K. Wriedt 39'

U. Ogundu 22'

Z. Muscat 7'

3/1/2025

1. Lig · Round 27Yeni Malatya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Yeni Malatyaspor18%

×Draw21%

Şanlıurfaspor62%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeni MalatyasporExpected goals in this matchŞanlıurfaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.07

Yeni Malatyaspor

1.00

Şanlıurfaspor

2.07

Şanlıurfaspor creates 107% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

0.57

creates per match

1.11

3.03

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.57

Şanlıurfaspor

1.11

allows per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

3.03

Şanlıurfaspor

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Malatyaspor ↓

Şanlıurfaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Yeni Malatyaspor or draw

38%

Yeni Malatyaspor or Şanlıurfaspor

79%

Draw or Şanlıurfaspor

82%

Winning margin

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

6%

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

63%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

26%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

8%

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

87%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

61%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

22%

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Malatyaspor at home — creates 0.57, concedes 3.03 · 30 matches

Şanlıurfaspor away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.57 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.00

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.11 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

18%

level

21%

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

62%

Şanlıurfaspor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Şanlıurfaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. Wriedt

Şanlıurfaspor · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

12'

22'

29'

31'

Hakan ErcelikCard upgrade

32'

34'

39'

43'

46'

46'

46'

Ç. Yıldızlı← E. Salik

46'

B. Sambou← K. Wriedt

46'

A. Begić← C. Akabueze

46'

A. Çelebi← Z. Muscat

57'

Ç. Giritlioğlu← A. Yazar

59'

Enes Nas

66'

H. Atcı← T. Garip

71'

Bouly Junior Sambou

76'

S. Gazanfer← U. Ogundu

79'

Ç. Giritlioğlu

80'

K. Selamoğlu← E. Savucu

82'

H. Atcı↳ K. Altunışık

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YeniŞanlıurfaspor

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots19

1Corners8

12Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots19

2On Target9

5Off Target8

2Blocked2

4Inside Box13

5Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

390Total Passes470

314Accurate Passes401

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0