Şanlıurfaspor 1–2 Yeni Malatyaspor: Result & Stats

Şanlıurfaspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Yeni Malatyaspor

R. Sal 54'

B. Dialiba 74'

M. Pereira 68'

10/16/2016

1. Lig · Round 7Şanlıurfa GAP Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor64%

×Draw20%

Yeni Malatyaspor16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŞanlıurfasporExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.94

Şanlıurfaspor

2.10

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.94

Şanlıurfaspor creates 123% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 33 away

1.05

creates per match

0.70

1.19

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.05

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.70

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.19

Yeni Malatyaspor

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw

84%

Şanlıurfaspor or Yeni Malatyaspor

80%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

36%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

40%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

88%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

62%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

35%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

61%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

24%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

80%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.05 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.10

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

64%

level

20%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

16%

Şanlıurfaspor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Şanlıurfaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

34'

34'

49'

53'

A. Karadağ← K. Söylemezgiller

54'

R. Sal

67'

İ. Başaran← A. Okechukwu

68'

M. Pereira

73'

A. Askar← B. Artarslan

73'

74'

78'

78'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ŞanlıurfasporYeni

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots10

3Corners8

24Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target5

4Off Target5

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

24Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1