Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sakaryaspor

Yeni Malatyaspor

CANC

14:00

Sakaryaspor

3/12/2023

1. Lig · Round 26Yeni Malatya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Yeni Malatyaspor23%

×Draw22%

Sakaryaspor55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeni MalatyasporExpected goals in this matchSakaryaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.00

Yeni Malatyaspor

1.23

Sakaryaspor

2.00

Sakaryaspor creates 63% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 71 away

0.67

creates per match

1.15

2.85

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.67

Sakaryaspor

1.15

allows per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

2.85

Sakaryaspor

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Malatyaspor ↓

Sakaryaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Yeni Malatyaspor or draw

45%

Yeni Malatyaspor or Sakaryaspor

78%

Draw or Sakaryaspor

77%

Winning margin

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

9%

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

71%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

35%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

13%

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

86%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

59%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

30%

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Malatyaspor at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.85 · 33 matches

Sakaryaspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.67 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sakaryaspor attack 1.15 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

23%

level

22%

Sakaryaspor scores more

55%

Sakaryaspor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff