Sakaryaspor 3–1 Yeni Malatyaspor: Result & Stats

Sakaryaspor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Yeni Malatyaspor

Ü. Kurt 71'

K. Kassongo 45+1', 43'

J. Nshimirimana 31'

10/1/2022

1. Lig · Round 7Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sakaryaspor70%

×Draw18%

Yeni Malatyaspor13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakaryasporExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.89

Sakaryaspor

2.35

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.89

Sakaryaspor creates 164% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 33 away

1.56

creates per match

0.70

1.08

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Sakaryaspor

1.56

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.70

allows per match

Sakaryaspor

1.08

Yeni Malatyaspor

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakaryaspor ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sakaryaspor or draw

87%

Sakaryaspor or Yeni Malatyaspor

82%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

30%

Winning margin

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

47%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

90%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

68%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

41%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

59%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

22%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

85%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakaryaspor at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakaryaspor attack 1.56 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.35

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sakaryaspor scores more

70%

level

18%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

13%

Sakaryaspor at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

K. Kassongo

Sakaryaspor · F

8.3

Match Events

31'

J. Nshimirimana↳ O. Özçiçek

41'

Jospin Nshimirimana

43'

K. Kassongo↳ H. Yavuz

45+5'

Hifsullah Ismail Erdogan

45+1'

K. Kassongo

46'

H. Taşcı← İ. Erdoğan

46'

S. Odabaşoğlu← E. Aydoğan

55'

N. Aydin← J. Nshimirimana

60'

Buğra Çağıran

62'

B. Kavlak← D. Emeksiz

67'

68'

69'

69'

70'

71'

72'

K. Woolery← B. Süleyman

78'

Hakan Yavuz

78'

I. Donkor← Ç. Menderes

85'

O. Roshi← O. Sol

89'

Taha Gur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SakaryasporYeni

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots17

4Corners2

15Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots17

6On Target5

4Off Target7

1Blocked5

8Inside Box10

3Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

417Total Passes285

324Accurate Passes196

78%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

0Offsides5