Yeni Malatyaspor 2–4 Boluspor: Result & Stats

Yeni Malatyaspor

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Boluspor

E. Savucu 89'

M. Altıntaş 26' (pen)

S. Nas 80'

P. Mukairu 60'

Jefferson 15'

K. Babacar 10'

1/4/2025

1. Lig · Round 18Yeni Malatya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Yeni Malatyaspor19%

×Draw21%

Boluspor59%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeni MalatyasporExpected goals in this matchBoluspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.00

Yeni Malatyaspor

1.04

Boluspor

2.00

Boluspor creates 92% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 146 away

0.67

creates per match

1.14

2.85

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.67

Boluspor

1.14

allows per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

2.85

Boluspor

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Malatyaspor ↓

Boluspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Yeni Malatyaspor or draw

41%

Yeni Malatyaspor or Boluspor

79%

Draw or Boluspor

81%

Winning margin

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

7%

Boluspor wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

65%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

28%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

9%

Boluspor 1+ goals

86%

Boluspor 2+ goals

59%

Boluspor 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

24%

Boluspor (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Malatyaspor at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.85 · 33 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.67 + Boluspor defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.04

Boluspor attack 1.14 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

19%

level

21%

Boluspor scores more

59%

Boluspor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Boluspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jefferson

Boluspor · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

Işık Kaan Arslan

10'

Khouma BabacarGoal confirmed

10'

K. Babacar↳ B. Yıldız

15'

Jefferson↳ D. Avramovski

23'

Umut Taniş

24'

Mert Miraç AltıntaşPenalty confirmed

25'

Çağlar Şahin Akbaba

26'

M. AltıntaşPenalty

30'

Berk Yıldız

46'

H. Bilgiç← O. Atasayar

60'

P. Mukairu↳ Jefferson

70'

Ö. Ataş← O. Katipoğlu

70'

E. Savucu← M. Taştan

70'

E. Aydın← B. Yıldız

71'

E. Şişman← B. Yaman

71'

Estrela← D. Avramovski

77'

K. Selamoğlu← E. Bayrakdar

77'

S. Nas← Jefferson

80'

81'

83'

87'

89'

E. Savucu↳ M. Altıntaş

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YeniBoluspor

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots18

1Corners9

11Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots18

5On Target9

2Off Target7

3Blocked2

6Inside Box14

4Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

403Total Passes470

324Accurate Passes400

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides5