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Boluspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Boluspor
Boluspor
FT
10 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
H. Yener 90+7'
S. Nas 90+4'
K. Babacar 90', 60'
V. İsgəndərli 85'
P. Mukairu 78', 28'
F. Hasani 76' (pen)
Jefferson 19'
O. Güçtekin 11'
E. Savucu 45+3'
5/4/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 37Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Boluspor67%
×Draw19%
Yeni Malatyaspor14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boluspor
2.23
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.90

Boluspor creates 148% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 33 away

creates per match

Boluspor
1.30
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.70

allows per match

Boluspor
1.10
Yeni Malatyaspor
3.15

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par
Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw
86%
Boluspor or Yeni Malatyaspor
81%
Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor
33%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+
44%
Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals
89%
Boluspor 2+ goals
65%
Boluspor 3+ goals
38%
Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
59%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
23%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)
83%
Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.10 · 145 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 1.30 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.23

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Boluspor defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Boluspor scores more
67%
level
19%
Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
14%

Boluspor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Boluspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
JeffersonBolusporBoluspor · M
9.7

Match Events

11'
O. Güçtekin
19'
Jefferson↳ V. İsgəndərli
23'
Ishak Karaogul
28'
P. Mukairu↳ N. Oularé
31'
Ö. Ataş← T. Garip
39'
Kerem Altunışık
45+6'
Enes SavucuGoal confirmed
45+3'
E. Savucu↳ E. Bayrakdar
52'
Muhammed Göktürk Gök
59'
H. Atcı← M. Güler
60'
K. Babacar↳ O. Güçtekin
66'
Mário Balbúrdia← D. Liço
66'
H. Yener← O. Güçtekin
67'
O. Katipoğlu← M. Ünal
76'
F. HasaniPenalty
78'
P. Mukairu↳ Jefferson
81'
K. Aleksić← P. Mukairu
81'
S. Nas← Jefferson
85'
Cinar Yildizli
85'
V. İsgəndərli↳ Mário Balbúrdia
88'
E. Erdoğan← F. Hasani
90+9'
Eren Erdoğan
90+9'
Vüsal İsgändärli
90+9'
Osman Katipoglu
90+9'
Emircan Bayrakdar
90'
K. Babacar↳ S. Nas
90+4'
S. Nas↳ E. Erdoğan
90+7'
H. Yener↳ E. Erdoğan

Possession

71%Boluspor

Shots

28Boluspor

Pass accuracy

60%Boluspor

Statistics

BolusporYeni
Overview
71%Possession29%
28Total Shots4
10Corners0
13Fouls13
Shots
28Total Shots4
17On Target3
8Off Target1
3Blocked0
21Inside Box2
7Outside Box2
Passing
71%Possession29%
461Total Passes195
379Accurate Passes106
82%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Boluspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor

Boluspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 10-1 in 1. Lig on May 4, 2025.

Goals: O. Güçtekin (11'), Jefferson (19'), P. Mukairu (28', 78'), E. Savucu (45+3'), K. Babacar (60', 90'), F. Hasani (76' pen), V. İsgəndərli (85'), S. Nas (90+4'), H. Yener (90+7').

Boluspor controlled possession (71%) and registered 28 shots to 4.

The match was played at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu in Kocaeli.