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Yelimay Semey vs Taraz — Cup 2019

Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Taraz
Taraz
M. Zhitnev 85', 16' (pen)
3/25/2023CupCup · Qualifying Round - 3Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Yelimay Semey47%
×Draw24%
Taraz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yelimay Semey
1.65
Taraz
1.25

Yelimay Semey creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Yelimay Semey
1.40
Taraz
1.90

allows per match

Yelimay Semey
0.60
Taraz
1.90

finishing

Yelimay Semey+0.00on par
Taraz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yelimay Semey ↓

Taraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Yelimay Semey or draw
71%
Yelimay Semey or Taraz
76%
Draw or Taraz
53%

Winning margin

Yelimay Semey wins by 2+
24%
Taraz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yelimay Semey 1+ goals
81%
Yelimay Semey 2+ goals
49%
Yelimay Semey 3+ goals
23%
Taraz 1+ goals
71%
Taraz 2+ goals
36%
Taraz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)
62%
Taraz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yelimay Semey at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Taraz away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yelimay Semey attack 1.40 + Taraz defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.65

Taraz attack 1.90 + Yelimay Semey defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Yelimay Semey scores more
47%
level
24%
Taraz scores more
29%

Yelimay Semey at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yelimay Semey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. ZhitnevPenalty
18'
V. Karshakevich
46'
M. Zhumat← M. Zhumat
58'
D. Orynbasar← D. Orynbasar
58'
M. Zhitnev
62'
M. Rabadanov← E. Nurgaliyev
62'
B. Kavtaradze← A. Nusip
75'
P. Yakovlev← A. Saparov
75'
Z. Umirzakov← Z. Umirzakov
85'
M. Zhitnev
86'
A. Zhandosov← A. Zhandosov
87'
M. Zhaksymbetov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yelimay Semey vs Taraz

Yelimay Semey beat Taraz 2-0 in Cup on March 25, 2023.

Goals: M. Zhitnev (16' pen, 85').

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.