Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Taraz vs Yelimay Semey — 1. Division 2019

Taraz
Taraz
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
8/4/20231. Division1. Division · Round 18Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Taraz27%
×Draw23%
Yelimay Semey50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taraz
1.29
Yelimay Semey
1.84

Yelimay Semey creates 43% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 14 away

creates per match

Taraz
1.94
Yelimay Semey
2.43

allows per match

Taraz
1.25
Yelimay Semey
0.64

finishing

Taraz+0.00on par
Yelimay Semey+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taraz ↓

Yelimay Semey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Taraz or draw
50%
Taraz or Yelimay Semey
77%
Draw or Yelimay Semey
73%

Winning margin

Taraz wins by 2+
11%
Yelimay Semey wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Taraz 1+ goals
72%
Taraz 2+ goals
37%
Taraz 3+ goals
14%
Yelimay Semey 1+ goals
84%
Yelimay Semey 2+ goals
55%
Yelimay Semey 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Taraz (draw refunded)
35%
Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taraz at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Yelimay Semey away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taraz attack 1.94 + Yelimay Semey defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.29

Yelimay Semey attack 2.43 + Taraz defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Taraz scores more
27%
level
23%
Yelimay Semey scores more
50%

Yelimay Semey at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yelimay Semey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Taraz 1–3 Yelimay Semey

Yelimay Semey beat Taraz 3-1 in 1. Division on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Taraz.