Yelimay Semey 1–1 Ordabasy: Result & Stats

Yelimay Semey

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ordabasy

S. Thioub 3'

D. Darboe 13'

4/28/2024

Premier League · Round 6Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Yelimay Semey41%

×Draw26%

Ordabasy33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yelimay SemeyExpected goals in this matchOrdabasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.20

Yelimay Semey

1.38

Ordabasy

1.20

Yelimay Semey creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 93 away

1.58

creates per match

1.33

1.06

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Yelimay Semey

1.58

Ordabasy

1.33

allows per match

Yelimay Semey

1.06

Ordabasy

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yelimay Semey+0.00on par

Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yelimay Semey ↓

Ordabasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Yelimay Semey or draw

67%

Yelimay Semey or Ordabasy

74%

Draw or Ordabasy

59%

Winning margin

Yelimay Semey wins by 2+

19%

Ordabasy wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Yelimay Semey 1+ goals

75%

Yelimay Semey 2+ goals

40%

Yelimay Semey 3+ goals

16%

Ordabasy 1+ goals

70%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

34%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)

56%

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yelimay Semey at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yelimay Semey attack 1.58 + Ordabasy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ordabasy attack 1.33 + Yelimay Semey defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yelimay Semey scores more

41%

level

26%

Ordabasy scores more

33%

Yelimay Semey at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yelimay Semey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

13'

22'

60'

60'

V. Sadovskiy← B. Islamkhan

61'

D. Shmidt← M. Gabyshev

75'

I. Sviridov← R. Tambe

79'

L. Cvek← S. Umarov

79'

Z. Šehović← G. Suyumbayev

83'

R. Murtazayev← China

83'

Y. Nurgaliyev← Q. Cornette

86'

Y. Tungyshbayev← J. Yakhshiboyev

89'

Dmitry Schmidt

Yelimay4-2-3-1

Ordabasy3-5-2

▼

Yakhshibo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Karpovich

61'▲D. Shmidt←▼M. Gabyshev

75'▲I. Sviridov←▼R. Tambe

83'▲R. Murtazayev←▼China

83'▲Y. Nurgaliyev←▼Q. Cornette

Yelimay Semey substitutes

ShmidtSviridovMurtazayevNurgaliyevAytbaevZolotovPertsukhPayruzAymanovShomkoŠaravanjaLobantsev

Manager: A. Sednev

60'▲S. Umarov←▼D. Darboe

60'▲V. Sadovskiy←▼B. Islamkhan

79'▲L. Cvek←▼S. Umarov

79'▲Z. Šehović←▼G. Suyumbayev

86'▲Y. Tungyshbayev←▼J. Yakhshiboyev

Ordabasy substitutes

UmarovSadovskiyCvekŠehovićTungyshbayevFedinTursynbayZharynbetovBiesiedinZhomartovAstanov