Ordabasy 2–1 Yelimay Semey: Result & Stats

Ordabasy

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Yelimay Semey

T. Erlanov 58'

I. Plastun 34'

I. Sviridov 78'

11/10/2024

Premier League · Round 26Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ordabasy44%

×Draw25%

Yelimay Semey31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrdabasyExpected goals in this matchYelimay Semey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.27

Ordabasy

1.57

Yelimay Semey

1.27

Ordabasy creates 24% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 33 away

1.73

creates per match

1.64

0.90

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ordabasy

1.73

Yelimay Semey

1.64

allows per match

Ordabasy

0.90

Yelimay Semey

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ordabasy+0.00on par

Yelimay Semey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordabasy ↓

Yelimay Semey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ordabasy or draw

69%

Ordabasy or Yelimay Semey

75%

Draw or Yelimay Semey

56%

Winning margin

Ordabasy wins by 2+

22%

Yelimay Semey wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ordabasy 1+ goals

79%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

46%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

21%

Yelimay Semey 1+ goals

72%

Yelimay Semey 2+ goals

36%

Yelimay Semey 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

59%

Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordabasy at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 97 matches

Yelimay Semey away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordabasy attack 1.73 + Yelimay Semey defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Yelimay Semey attack 1.64 + Ordabasy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ordabasy scores more

44%

level

25%

Yelimay Semey scores more

31%

Ordabasy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

T. Erlanov

34'

I. Plastun

36'

D. Maicom

46'

I. Mashukov← R. Murtazaev

54'

S. Astanov

58'

T. Erlanov

63'

A. Darabayev← A. Darabayev

63'

M. Gabyshev← S. Keiler

63'

Y. Pertsukh← I. Sviridov

70'

S. Astanov← Reginaldo

75'

E. Reyes← China

78'

S. Umarov← A. Abiken

78'

S. Zharynbetov← M. Fedin

78'

I. Sviridov

80'

N. Korzun

85'

Y. Tungyshbayev← Z. Sehovic

Ordabasy4-3-3

Yelimay4-2-3-1

9

24

8

22

23

81

4

63

3

19

35

1

5

23

⚽

Erlanov

32

⚽

22

14

19

8

7

9

21

Manager: K. Keker

70'▲S. Astanov←▼Reginaldo

78'▲S. Umarov←▼A. Abiken

78'▲S. Zharynbetov←▼M. Fedin

85'▲Y. Tungyshbayev←▼Z. Sehovic

Ordabasy substitutes

2Reginaldo6Abiken11Fedin17Šehović35Zhomartov71Ignatovich3Tovar25Maliy4Cvek

Manager: A. Karpovich

46'▲I. Mashukov←▼R. Murtazaev

63'▲—←▼A. Darabayev

63'▲M. Gabyshev←▼S. Keiler

63'▲Y. Pertsukh←▼I. Sviridov

75'▲E. Reyes←▼China

Yelimay Semey substitutes

7Murtazaev5Keiler12Darabaev11Sviridov20China78Kavlinov15Schmidt88Yashin77Shomko10Nurgaliyev

Match Recap: Ordabasy vs Yelimay Semey

Ordabasy beat Yelimay Semey 2-1 in Premier League on November 10, 2024.

Goals: I. Plastun (34'), T. Erlanov (58'), I. Sviridov (78').

The match was played at Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov in Shymkent.

Ordabasy vs Yelimay Semey — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ordabasy vs Yelimay Semey