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Yelimay Semey vs Jas Qyran — 1. Division 2019

Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
E. Nurgaliyev 79'
S. Abilgazy 61'
7/28/20231. Division1. Division · Round 17Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yelimay Semey75%
×Draw15%
Jas Qyran10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yelimay Semey
2.71
Jas Qyran
0.89

Yelimay Semey creates 204% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Yelimay Semey
3.00
Jas Qyran
1.21

allows per match

Yelimay Semey
0.57
Jas Qyran
2.43

finishing

Yelimay Semey+0.00on par
Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yelimay Semey ↓

Jas Qyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Yelimay Semey or draw
90%
Yelimay Semey or Jas Qyran
85%
Draw or Jas Qyran
25%

Winning margin

Yelimay Semey wins by 2+
54%
Jas Qyran wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yelimay Semey 1+ goals
93%
Yelimay Semey 2+ goals
75%
Yelimay Semey 3+ goals
50%
Jas Qyran 1+ goals
59%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
22%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)
88%
Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yelimay Semey at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yelimay Semey attack 3.00 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.71

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Yelimay Semey defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Yelimay Semey scores more
75%
level
15%
Jas Qyran scores more
10%

Yelimay Semey at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Yelimay Semey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
S. Abilgazy
79'
E. Nurgaliyev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yelimay Semey vs Jas Qyran

Yelimay Semey beat Jas Qyran 2-0 in 1. Division on July 28, 2023.

Goals: S. Abilgazy (61'), E. Nurgaliyev (79').

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Semipalatinsk.