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Jas Qyran vs Yelimay Semey — 1. Division 2019

Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
M. Zhitnev 89'
A. Saparov 21'
4/22/20231. Division1. Division · Round 3Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jas Qyran31%
×Draw23%
Yelimay Semey46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jas Qyran
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.86

Yelimay Semey creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Jas Qyran
2.36
Yelimay Semey
2.43

allows per match

Jas Qyran
1.29
Yelimay Semey
0.64

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par
Yelimay Semey+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Yelimay Semey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw
54%
Jas Qyran or Yelimay Semey
77%
Draw or Yelimay Semey
69%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+
14%
Yelimay Semey wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals
78%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
44%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
19%
Yelimay Semey 1+ goals
84%
Yelimay Semey 2+ goals
55%
Yelimay Semey 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
40%
Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Yelimay Semey away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 2.36 + Yelimay Semey defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Yelimay Semey attack 2.43 + Jas Qyran defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jas Qyran scores more
31%
level
23%
Yelimay Semey scores more
46%

Yelimay Semey at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yelimay Semey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
A. Saparov
89'
M. Zhitnev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jas Qyran vs Yelimay Semey

Yelimay Semey beat Jas Qyran 2-0 in 1. Division on April 22, 2023.

Goals: A. Saparov (21'), M. Zhitnev (89').

The match was played at Stadion Jas Qyran in Almaty.