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Yelimay Semey vs Arys — 1. Division 2019

Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arys
Arys
10/20/20231. Division1. Division · Round 28Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yelimay Semey74%
×Draw15%
Arys11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yelimay Semey
2.67
Arys
0.94

Yelimay Semey creates 184% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 40 away

creates per match

Yelimay Semey
3.00
Arys
1.30

allows per match

Yelimay Semey
0.57
Arys
2.35

finishing

Yelimay Semey+0.00on par
Arys+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yelimay Semey ↓

Arys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Yelimay Semey or draw
89%
Yelimay Semey or Arys
85%
Draw or Arys
26%

Winning margin

Yelimay Semey wins by 2+
52%
Arys wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yelimay Semey 1+ goals
93%
Yelimay Semey 2+ goals
74%
Yelimay Semey 3+ goals
49%
Arys 1+ goals
61%
Arys 2+ goals
24%
Arys 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)
87%
Arys (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yelimay Semey at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Arys away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yelimay Semey attack 3.00 + Arys defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.67

Arys attack 1.30 + Yelimay Semey defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Yelimay Semey scores more
74%
level
15%
Arys scores more
11%

Yelimay Semey at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Yelimay Semey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Yelimay Semey 3–0 Arys

Yelimay Semey beat Arys 3-0 in 1. Division on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Semipalatinsk.