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Arys vs Yelimay Semey — Cup 2019

Arys
Arys
FT
0 – 3
Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
3/21/2023CupCup · Qualifying Round - 2Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Arys26%
×Draw22%
Yelimay Semey52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arys
1.33
Yelimay Semey
1.98

Yelimay Semey creates 49% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Arys
1.67
Yelimay Semey
2.20

allows per match

Arys
1.75
Yelimay Semey
1.00

finishing

Arys+0.00on par
Yelimay Semey+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arys ↓

Yelimay Semey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Arys or draw
48%
Arys or Yelimay Semey
78%
Draw or Yelimay Semey
74%

Winning margin

Arys wins by 2+
11%
Yelimay Semey wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Arys 1+ goals
74%
Arys 2+ goals
38%
Arys 3+ goals
15%
Yelimay Semey 1+ goals
86%
Yelimay Semey 2+ goals
59%
Yelimay Semey 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Arys (draw refunded)
33%
Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arys at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Yelimay Semey away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arys attack 1.67 + Yelimay Semey defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Yelimay Semey attack 2.20 + Arys defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arys scores more
26%
level
22%
Yelimay Semey scores more
52%

Yelimay Semey at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yelimay Semey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Arys 0–3 Yelimay Semey

Yelimay Semey beat Arys 3-0 in Cup on March 21, 2023.

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.