Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yelimay Semey 2 vs Khan Tengri — 1. Division 2026

Yelimay Semey 2
Yelimay Semey 2
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri
V. Levkovich 48'
A. Baygaliev 23'
Y. Galva 4'
A. Kelgenbaj 90+4'
N. Amirbek 18'
R. Emirov 1'
4/17/20261. Division1. Division · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Yelimay Semey 251%
×Draw22%
Khan Tengri28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yelimay Semey 2
2.02
Khan Tengri
1.45

Yelimay Semey 2 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Yelimay Semey 2
1.25
Khan Tengri
0.90

allows per match

Yelimay Semey 2
2.00
Khan Tengri
2.80

finishing

Yelimay Semey 2+0.00on par
Khan Tengri+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yelimay Semey 2 ↓

Khan Tengri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Yelimay Semey 2 or draw
72%
Yelimay Semey 2 or Khan Tengri
78%
Draw or Khan Tengri
49%

Winning margin

Yelimay Semey 2 wins by 2+
29%
Khan Tengri wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yelimay Semey 2 1+ goals
87%
Yelimay Semey 2 2+ goals
60%
Yelimay Semey 2 3+ goals
33%
Khan Tengri 1+ goals
77%
Khan Tengri 2+ goals
42%
Khan Tengri 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Yelimay Semey 2 (draw refunded)
65%
Khan Tengri (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yelimay Semey 2 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Khan Tengri away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yelimay Semey 2 attack 1.25 + Khan Tengri defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Khan Tengri attack 0.90 + Yelimay Semey 2 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Yelimay Semey 2 scores more
51%
level
22%
Khan Tengri scores more
28%

Yelimay Semey 2 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Yelimay Semey 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
R. Emirov
4'
Y. Galva
18'
N. Amirbek↳ R. Sarsenbek
23'
A. Baygaliev↳ N. Nuradilov
48'
V. Levkovich
90+4'
A. Kelgenbaj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yelimay Semey 2 vs Khan Tengri

Yelimay Semey 2 and Khan Tengri drew 3-3 in 1. Division on April 17, 2026.

Goals: R. Emirov (1'), Y. Galva (4'), N. Amirbek (18'), A. Baygaliev (23'), V. Levkovich (48'), A. Kelgenbaj (90+4').