Yeclano 1–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia: Result & Stats

Yeclano

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Alejandro Pérez 26' (OG)

Emilio Pérez 53'

10/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano63%

×Draw23%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YeclanoExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.72

Yeclano

1.79

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.72

Yeclano creates 149% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

2.12

creates per match

0.85

0.59

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Yeclano

2.12

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Yeclano

0.59

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw

85%

Yeclano or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

77%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

37%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+

37%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals

83%

Yeclano 2+ goals

53%

Yeclano 3+ goals

26%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

51%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

16%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)

81%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 2.12 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Yeclano defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Yeclano scores more

63%

level

23%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

15%

Yeclano at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Alejandro PérezOwn goal

53'

Emilio Pérez

63'

Tonete← Mario Tomé

63'

Luispa← Pau Pérez

63'

Antonio Martínez← Álex Melgar

71'

Pablo Guillen← Emilio Pérez

71'

Peque← Javi Muñoz

80'

Feli Martínez← Antonio Salinas

80'

Álvaro Navarro← Álvaro

82'

Miguel← David Valverde

89'

Diego Cárceles← Samuel Martínez

Yeclano

CAP

🥅

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Manager: Adrián Hernández

63'▲Tonete←▼Mario Tomé

63'▲Luispa←▼Pau Pérez

63'▲Antonio Martínez←▼Álex Melgar

80'▲Feli Martínez←▼Antonio Salinas

80'▲Álvaro Navarro←▼Álvaro

Yeclano substitutes

ToneteLuispaMartínezMartínezNavarro

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

71'▲Pablo Guillen←▼Emilio Pérez

71'▲Peque←▼Javi Muñoz

82'▲Miguel←▼David Valverde

89'▲Diego Cárceles←▼Samuel Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

GuillenPequeMiguelCárceles

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Yeclano 1–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Yeclano and CAP Ciudad de Murcia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 24, 2021.

Goals: Alejandro Pérez (26' o.g.), Emilio Pérez (53').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Constitución in Yecla.

Yeclano vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Yeclano 1–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia