CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–2 Yeclano: Result & Stats

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Yeclano

Álex Melgar 73'

Pablo Serrano 55'

3/6/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 26Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia20%

×Draw26%

Yeclano54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchYeclano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.55

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.84

Yeclano

1.55

Yeclano creates 85% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

1.03

creates per match

2.06

1.04

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Yeclano

2.06

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Yeclano

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Yeclano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Yeclano →

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

46%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Yeclano

74%

Draw or Yeclano

80%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

Yeclano wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

57%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

21%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Yeclano 1+ goals

79%

Yeclano 2+ goals

46%

Yeclano 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

27%

Yeclano (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Yeclano away — creates 2.06, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Yeclano defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.84

Yeclano attack 2.06 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

20%

level

26%

Yeclano scores more

54%

Yeclano at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Emilio Pérez← Pablo Guillen

55'

Pablo Serrano

57'

Pablo de Dios← Antonio Salinas

61'

Alejandro Molina← Trucha

61'

David Valverde← Matías

64'

Álex Melgar← Álvaro

73'

Álex Melgar

76'

Alberto Martínez← Emilio Pérez

76'

Iván Pérez← Franco

81'

Álvaro Mora← Manu Costa

81'

Luispa← Pau Pérez

81'

Mario Hernández← Antonio Martínez

CAP

Yeclano

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

10'▲Emilio Pérez←▼Pablo Guillen

61'▲Alejandro Molina←▼Trucha

61'▲David Valverde←▼Matías

76'▲Alberto Martínez←▼Emilio Pérez

76'▲Iván Pérez←▼Franco

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

PérezMolinaValverdeMartínezPérez

Manager: Adrián Hernández

57'▲Pablo de Dios←▼Antonio Salinas

64'▲Álex Melgar←▼Álvaro

81'▲Álvaro Mora←▼Manu Costa

81'▲Luispa←▼Pau Pérez

81'▲Mario Hernández←▼Antonio Martínez

Yeclano substitutes

DiosMelgarMoraLuispaHernández

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Yeclano

Yeclano beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 6, 2022.

Goals: Pablo Serrano (55'), Álex Melgar (73').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Yeclano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Yeclano