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Yeclano II vs Santa Cruz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Yeclano II
Yeclano II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
4/26/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Campo de la Constitucion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yeclano II20%
×Draw26%
Santa Cruz54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeclano II
0.79
Santa Cruz
1.50

Santa Cruz creates 90% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Yeclano II
0.76
Santa Cruz
1.29

allows per match

Yeclano II
1.71
Santa Cruz
0.82

finishing

Yeclano II+0.00on par
Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano II ↓

Santa Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Yeclano II or draw
46%
Yeclano II or Santa Cruz
74%
Draw or Santa Cruz
80%

Winning margin

Yeclano II wins by 2+
6%
Santa Cruz wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Yeclano II 1+ goals
55%
Yeclano II 2+ goals
19%
Yeclano II 3+ goals
5%
Santa Cruz 1+ goals
78%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
44%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Yeclano II (draw refunded)
27%
Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano II attack 0.76 + Santa Cruz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Santa Cruz attack 1.29 + Yeclano II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Yeclano II scores more
20%
level
26%
Santa Cruz scores more
54%

Santa Cruz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yeclano II vs Santa Cruz

Santa Cruz beat Yeclano II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de la Constitucion in Yecla.