Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santa Cruz vs Yeclano II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yeclano II
Yeclano II
12/17/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Cruz45%
×Draw29%
Yeclano II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Cruz
1.24
Yeclano II
0.85

Santa Cruz creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Santa Cruz
0.88
Yeclano II
0.53

allows per match

Santa Cruz
1.18
Yeclano II
1.59

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par
Yeclano II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Yeclano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw
75%
Santa Cruz or Yeclano II
71%
Draw or Yeclano II
55%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+
20%
Yeclano II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals
71%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
35%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
13%
Yeclano II 1+ goals
57%
Yeclano II 2+ goals
21%
Yeclano II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
64%
Yeclano II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Yeclano II away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 0.88 + Yeclano II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Yeclano II attack 0.53 + Santa Cruz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Santa Cruz scores more
45%
level
29%
Yeclano II scores more
25%

Santa Cruz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Cruz vs Yeclano II

Santa Cruz beat Yeclano II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.