Yate Town 3–0 Evesham United: Result & Stats

Yate Town

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Evesham United

C. Zebroski 87' (pen)

M. Jackson 48', 40'

4/6/2026

League #60 · Round 39The Jelf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yate Town59%

×Draw22%

Evesham United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yate TownExpected goals in this matchEvesham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.00

Yate Town

1.94

Evesham United

1.00

Yate Town creates 94% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

1.33

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Yate Town

2.00

Evesham United

0.67

allows per match

Yate Town

1.33

Evesham United

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yate Town+0.00on par

Evesham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yate Town ↓

Evesham United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Yate Town or draw

81%

Yate Town or Evesham United

78%

Draw or Evesham United

41%

Winning margin

Yate Town wins by 2+

35%

Evesham United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Yate Town 1+ goals

86%

Yate Town 2+ goals

58%

Yate Town 3+ goals

30%

Evesham United 1+ goals

63%

Evesham United 2+ goals

26%

Evesham United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Yate Town (draw refunded)

76%

Evesham United (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yate Town at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Evesham United away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yate Town attack 2.00 + Evesham United defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.94

Evesham United attack 0.67 + Yate Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Yate Town scores more

59%

level

22%

Evesham United scores more

19%

Yate Town at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Yate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

M. Jackson

48'

M. Jackson

87'

C. ZebroskiPenalty

Yate

Evesham

Manager: D. Mullings

Manager: N. Hunt