Evesham United 0–1 Yate Town: Result & Stats

Evesham United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Yate Town

C. Evans 34'

12/27/2025

League #60 · Round 24The Spiers & Hartwell Jubilee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Evesham United50%

×Draw29%

Yate Town22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Evesham UnitedExpected goals in this matchYate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.75

Evesham United

1.30

Yate Town

0.75

Evesham United creates 73% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

1.35

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Evesham United

1.35

Yate Town

0.50

allows per match

Evesham United

1.00

Yate Town

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Evesham United+0.00on par

Yate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Evesham United ↓

Yate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Evesham United or draw

78%

Evesham United or Yate Town

71%

Draw or Yate Town

50%

Winning margin

Evesham United wins by 2+

23%

Yate Town wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Evesham United 1+ goals

73%

Evesham United 2+ goals

37%

Evesham United 3+ goals

14%

Yate Town 1+ goals

53%

Yate Town 2+ goals

17%

Yate Town 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Evesham United (draw refunded)

70%

Yate Town (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Evesham United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Yate Town away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Evesham United attack 1.35 + Yate Town defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Yate Town attack 0.50 + Evesham United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Evesham United scores more

50%

level

29%

Yate Town scores more

22%

Evesham United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Evesham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

C. Evans

Evesham

Yate

Manager: N. Hunt

Manager: D. Mullings