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Yassy Turkistan vs Arys — 1. Division 2019

Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arys
Arys
5/24/20241. Division1. Division · Round 8Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Yassy Turkistan43%
×Draw23%
Arys35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yassy Turkistan
1.81
Arys
1.62

Yassy Turkistan creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 40 away

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.28
Arys
1.30

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.94
Arys
2.35

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par
Arys+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

Arys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw
65%
Yassy Turkistan or Arys
77%
Draw or Arys
57%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
23%
Arys wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
84%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
54%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
27%
Arys 1+ goals
80%
Arys 2+ goals
48%
Arys 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
55%
Arys (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.94 · 54 matches

Arys away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.28 + Arys defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.81

Arys attack 1.30 + Yassy Turkistan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more
43%
level
23%
Arys scores more
35%

Yassy Turkistan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yassy Turkistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Yassy Turkistan 2–0 Arys

Yassy Turkistan beat Arys 2-0 in 1. Division on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov in Turkistan.