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Arys vs Yassy Turkistan — 1. Division 2019

Arys
Arys
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
8/2/20241. Division1. Division · Round 18Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Arys47%
×Draw21%
Yassy Turkistan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arys
2.04
Yassy Turkistan
1.64

Arys creates 24% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 52 away

creates per match

Arys
1.21
Yassy Turkistan
1.35

allows per match

Arys
1.93
Yassy Turkistan
2.87

finishing

Arys+0.00on par
Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arys ↓

Yassy Turkistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Arys or draw
69%
Arys or Yassy Turkistan
79%
Draw or Yassy Turkistan
53%

Winning margin

Arys wins by 2+
27%
Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arys 1+ goals
87%
Arys 2+ goals
60%
Arys 3+ goals
33%
Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
81%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
49%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Arys (draw refunded)
60%
Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arys at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.93 · 42 matches

Yassy Turkistan away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arys attack 1.21 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.35 + Arys defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arys scores more
47%
level
21%
Yassy Turkistan scores more
31%

Arys at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arys vs Yassy Turkistan

Arys and Yassy Turkistan drew 1-1 in 1. Division on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Arys.