Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yassy Turkistan vs Akademiya Ontustik — 1. Division 2019

Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
8/1/20251. Division1. Division · Round 16Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Yassy Turkistan39%
×Draw23%
Akademiya Ontustik38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yassy Turkistan
1.61
Akademiya Ontustik
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 76 away

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.28
Akademiya Ontustik
1.24

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.94
Akademiya Ontustik
1.95

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par
Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw
62%
Yassy Turkistan or Akademiya Ontustik
77%
Draw or Akademiya Ontustik
61%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
19%
Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
80%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
48%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
22%
Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
80%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
47%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
51%
Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.94 · 54 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.28 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.61

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.24 + Yassy Turkistan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more
39%
level
23%
Akademiya Ontustik scores more
38%

Yassy Turkistan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yassy Turkistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yassy Turkistan vs Akademiya Ontustik

Yassy Turkistan and Akademiya Ontustik drew 1-1 in 1. Division on August 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov in Turkestan.