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Akademiya Ontustik vs Yassy Turkistan — 1. Division 2019

Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
5/2/20251. Division1. Division · Round 4Namys Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik53%
×Draw20%
Yassy Turkistan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Ontustik
2.30
Yassy Turkistan
1.63

Akademiya Ontustik creates 41% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 52 away

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.73
Yassy Turkistan
1.35

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.91
Yassy Turkistan
2.87

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par
Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Yassy Turkistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw
73%
Akademiya Ontustik or Yassy Turkistan
80%
Draw or Yassy Turkistan
47%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
32%
Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
90%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
67%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
40%
Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
80%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
48%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
66%
Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 77 matches

Yassy Turkistan away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.73 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.30

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.35 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more
53%
level
20%
Yassy Turkistan scores more
27%

Akademiya Ontustik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademiya Ontustik vs Yassy Turkistan

Akademiya Ontustik beat Yassy Turkistan 3-0 in 1. Division on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Namys Stadium in Shymkent.