Yassy Turkistan 0–1 Akademiya Ontustik

Yassy Turkistan

FT

0 – 1

Akademiya Ontustik

5/1/2021

Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundTurkistan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Yassy Turkistan18%

×Draw21%

Akademiya Ontustik61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yassy TurkistanExpected goals in this matchAkademiya Ontustik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

2.05

Yassy Turkistan

1.01

Akademiya Ontustik

2.05

Akademiya Ontustik creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

0.60

creates per match

1.71

2.40

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan

0.60

Akademiya Ontustik

1.71

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan

2.40

Akademiya Ontustik

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw

39%

Yassy Turkistan or Akademiya Ontustik

79%

Draw or Akademiya Ontustik

82%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+

6%

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals

64%

Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals

27%

Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals

8%

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

87%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

61%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)

23%

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 0.60 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.01

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.71 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more

18%

level

21%

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

61%

Akademiya Ontustik at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff