Yarud Mariupol' 0–0 Nyva Buzova: Result & Stats

Yarud Mariupol'

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nyva Buzova

4/12/2024

Persha Liga · Championship Round - 4Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yarud Mariupol'30%

×Draw29%

Nyva Buzova41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yarud Mariupol'Expected goals in this matchNyva Buzova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.23

Yarud Mariupol'

1.00

Nyva Buzova

1.23

Nyva Buzova creates 23% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.21

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Yarud Mariupol'

1.00

Nyva Buzova

1.21

allows per match

Yarud Mariupol'

1.25

Nyva Buzova

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yarud Mariupol' ↓

Nyva Buzova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Yarud Mariupol' or draw

59%

Yarud Mariupol' or Nyva Buzova

71%

Draw or Nyva Buzova

70%

Winning margin

Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+

11%

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals

63%

Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals

26%

Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals

8%

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

71%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

35%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)

42%

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yarud Mariupol' at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.00 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yarud Mariupol' scores more

30%

level

29%

Nyva Buzova scores more

41%

Nyva Buzova at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

V. Rogozynskyi

46'

D. Kulyk← V. Tymenko

57'

D. Fateev

61'

Y. Zakharevych← N. Tepliakov

62'

Y. Mnyshenko← D. Pudy

75'

D. Falkovskyi← V. Nekhtii

79'

D. Korkishko

81'

I. Bykovskyi← Y. Zadoia

81'

O. Malaki← Y. Bulhakov

83'

R. Plaksa

86'

O. Batalskyi← I. Zubkov

87'

K. Matvieiev← D. Korkishko

87'

O. Mihunov← M. Vechurko

Yarud

Nyva

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Krasnopiorov

62'▲Y. Mnyshenko←▼D. Pudy

81'▲I. Bykovskyi←▼Y. Zadoia

81'▲O. Malaki←▼Y. Bulhakov

86'▲O. Batalskyi←▼I. Zubkov

Yarud Mariupol' substitutes

MnyshenkoBykovskyiMalakiBatalskyiPetrovskyiYakubenkoZubkovZhovtenkoKharzhevskyiKravtsovHoshkoderia

Manager: R. Loktionov

46'▲D. Kulyk←▼V. Tymenko

61'▲Y. Zakharevych←▼N. Tepliakov

75'▲D. Falkovskyi←▼V. Nekhtii

87'▲K. Matvieiev←▼D. Korkishko

87'▲O. Mihunov←▼M. Vechurko

Nyva Buzova substitutes

KulykZakharevychFalkovskyiMatvieievMihunovMacheliukMamrosenkoKalininNikolyshynLiopka