Nyva Buzova 1–1 Yarud Mariupol': Result & Stats

Nyva Buzova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Yarud Mariupol'

Y. Misiura 90'

O. Zhovtenko 77'

5/18/2024

Persha Liga · Championship Round - 9Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Buzova35%

×Draw28%

Yarud Mariupol'38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva BuzovaExpected goals in this matchYarud Mariupol'

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.23

Nyva Buzova

1.17

Yarud Mariupol'

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 53 away

1.07

creates per match

1.04

1.43

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Nyva Buzova

1.07

Yarud Mariupol'

1.04

allows per match

Nyva Buzova

1.43

Yarud Mariupol'

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Yarud Mariupol' →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw

62%

Nyva Buzova or Yarud Mariupol'

72%

Draw or Yarud Mariupol'

65%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

14%

Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

69%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

33%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

11%

Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals

71%

Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals

35%

Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

48%

Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Yarud Mariupol' away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 1.07 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.04 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more

35%

level

28%

Yarud Mariupol' scores more

38%

Yarud Mariupol' at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yarud Mariupol' will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Oliinyk← O. Malaki

51'

I. Mochevinskiy

57'

R. Plaksa

58'

D. Kulyk← V. Tymenko

58'

K. Matvieiev← O. Mihunov

58'

Y. Zakharevych← I. Hulko

68'

K. Matveev

73'

O. Batalskyi← I. Zubkov

73'

V. Hoshkoderia← I. Mochevinskyi

75'

R. Plaksa

75'

R. Plaksa

76'

Y. Chepurnenko← M. Vechurko

77'

O. Zhovtenko

78'

O. Kalinin← D. Falkovskyi

87'

O. Serhiyovych Zhovtenko

87'

P. Shushko← D. Fatieiev

90+4'

M. Zubkov← O. Zhovtenko

90'

Y. Misiura

Nyva

Yarud

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Loktionov

58'▲D. Kulyk←▼V. Tymenko

58'▲K. Matvieiev←▼O. Mihunov

58'▲Y. Zakharevych←▼I. Hulko

76'▲Y. Chepurnenko←▼M. Vechurko

78'▲O. Kalinin←▼D. Falkovskyi

Nyva Buzova substitutes

KulykMatvieievZakharevychChepurnenkoKalininMacheliukTkachenkoKlimovSerdiukNikolyshyn

Manager: O. Krasnopiorov

46'▲D. Oliinyk←▼O. Malaki

73'▲O. Batalskyi←▼I. Zubkov

73'▲V. Hoshkoderia←▼I. Mochevinskyi

87'▲P. Shushko←▼D. Fatieiev

90+4'▲M. Zubkov←▼O. Zhovtenko

Yarud Mariupol' substitutes

OliinykBatalskyiHoshkoderiaShushkoZubkovPetrovskyiYakubenkoKravtsovBulhakovMnyshenko

Match Recap: Nyva Buzova vs Yarud Mariupol'

Nyva Buzova and Yarud Mariupol' drew 1-1 in Persha Liga on May 18, 2024.

Goals: O. Zhovtenko (77'), Y. Misiura (90').

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.

Nyva Buzova vs Yarud Mariupol' — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nyva Buzova vs Yarud Mariupol'