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Yarud Mariupol' vs Metalurh Zaporizhya — Persha Liga 2019

Yarud Mariupol'
Yarud Mariupol'
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Metalurh Zaporizhya
Metalurh Zaporizhya
4/8/2026Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 22Kolos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Yarud Mariupol'44%
×Draw27%
Metalurh Zaporizhya29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yarud Mariupol'
1.35
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.05

Yarud Mariupol' creates 29% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

creates per match

Yarud Mariupol'
1.00
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.86

allows per match

Yarud Mariupol'
1.25
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.71

finishing

Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par
Metalurh Zaporizhya+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yarud Mariupol' ↓

Metalurh Zaporizhya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yarud Mariupol' or draw
71%
Yarud Mariupol' or Metalurh Zaporizhya
73%
Draw or Metalurh Zaporizhya
56%

Winning margin

Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+
20%
Metalurh Zaporizhya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals
74%
Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals
39%
Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals
15%
Metalurh Zaporizhya 1+ goals
65%
Metalurh Zaporizhya 2+ goals
28%
Metalurh Zaporizhya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)
60%
Metalurh Zaporizhya (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yarud Mariupol' at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.00 + Metalurh Zaporizhya defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.86 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yarud Mariupol' scores more
44%
level
27%
Metalurh Zaporizhya scores more
29%

Yarud Mariupol' at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yarud Mariupol' will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yarud Mariupol' vs Metalurh Zaporizhya

Yarud Mariupol' beat Metalurh Zaporizhya 2-1 in Persha Liga on April 8, 2026.

The match was played at Kolos Stadium in Kovalivka.