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Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Yarud Mariupol' — Persha Liga 2019

Metalurh Zaporizhya
Metalurh Zaporizhya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Yarud Mariupol'
Yarud Mariupol'
9/21/2025Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 7Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya29%
×Draw27%
Yarud Mariupol'43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.07
Yarud Mariupol'
1.36

Yarud Mariupol' creates 27% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

creates per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.88
Yarud Mariupol'
1.04

allows per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.68
Yarud Mariupol'
1.26

finishing

Metalurh Zaporizhya+0.00on par
Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalurh Zaporizhya ↓

Yarud Mariupol' →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Metalurh Zaporizhya or draw
57%
Metalurh Zaporizhya or Yarud Mariupol'
73%
Draw or Yarud Mariupol'
71%

Winning margin

Metalurh Zaporizhya wins by 2+
11%
Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Metalurh Zaporizhya 1+ goals
66%
Metalurh Zaporizhya 2+ goals
29%
Metalurh Zaporizhya 3+ goals
9%
Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals
74%
Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals
39%
Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Metalurh Zaporizhya (draw refunded)
40%
Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalurh Zaporizhya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

Yarud Mariupol' away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.88 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.04 + Metalurh Zaporizhya defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Metalurh Zaporizhya scores more
29%
level
27%
Yarud Mariupol' scores more
43%

Yarud Mariupol' at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yarud Mariupol' will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Yarud Mariupol'

Metalurh Zaporizhya and Yarud Mariupol' drew 1-1 in Persha Liga on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Slavutych-Arena in Zaporizhia.