Yarud Mariupol' 2–1 Kremin': Result & Stats

Yarud Mariupol'

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kremin'

A. Bohdanov 67'

I. Zubkov 27' (pen)

V. Molko 59'

9/27/2024

Persha Liga · Round 9Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Yarud Mariupol'50%

×Draw25%

Kremin'25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yarud Mariupol'Expected goals in this matchKremin'

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.05

Yarud Mariupol'

1.61

Kremin'

1.05

Yarud Mariupol' creates 53% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 77 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

1.25

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Yarud Mariupol'

1.00

Kremin'

0.86

allows per match

Yarud Mariupol'

1.25

Kremin'

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par

Kremin'+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yarud Mariupol' ↓

Kremin' →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Yarud Mariupol' or draw

75%

Yarud Mariupol' or Kremin'

75%

Draw or Kremin'

50%

Winning margin

Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+

26%

Kremin' wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals

80%

Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals

48%

Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals

22%

Kremin' 1+ goals

65%

Kremin' 2+ goals

28%

Kremin' 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)

67%

Kremin' (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yarud Mariupol' at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Kremin' away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.00 + Kremin' defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kremin' attack 0.86 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Yarud Mariupol' scores more

50%

level

25%

Kremin' scores more

25%

Yarud Mariupol' at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yarud Mariupol' will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

I. ZubkovPenalty

46'

I. Melnychenko← A. Baidal

46'

P. Kharzhevskyi← D. Pudy

59'

V. Molko

60'

O. Panchyshyn← Z. Zlatiev

67'

A. Bohdanov

71'

I. Petrenko← A. Bohdanov

71'

I. Kuts← M. Trofymiuk

79'

Y. Mnyshenko← D. Penteleichuk

90+2'

D. Fatieiev← I. Zubkov

Yarud

Kremin'

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bohdanov

Savin

⚽

▼

Zubkov

▼

Penteleic

▼

Baidal

Manager: O. Krasnopiorov

46'▲I. Melnychenko←▼A. Baidal

46'▲P. Kharzhevskyi←▼D. Pudy

71'▲I. Petrenko←▼A. Bohdanov

79'▲Y. Mnyshenko←▼D. Penteleichuk

90+2'▲D. Fatieiev←▼I. Zubkov

Yarud Mariupol' substitutes

MelnychenkoKharzhevskyiPetrenkoMnyshenkoFatieievBykovskyiYakubenkoZubkovShushkoHoshkoderiaBulhakovDemchenko

Manager: I. Klymovskyi

60'▲O. Panchyshyn←▼Z. Zlatiev

71'▲I. Kuts←▼M. Trofymiuk

Kremin' substitutes

PanchyshynKutsSavitskyiZaichenkoKlepkoTylokhaOksenenkoMaksymenkoBarinov