Kremin' 3–0 Yarud Mariupol': Result & Stats

Kremin'

FT

3 – 0

Yarud Mariupol'

11/27/2024

Persha Liga · Round 18Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Kremin'34%

×Draw28%

Yarud Mariupol'38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kremin'Expected goals in this matchYarud Mariupol'

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.23

Kremin'

1.14

Yarud Mariupol'

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 53 away

1.01

creates per match

1.04

1.42

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Kremin'

1.01

Yarud Mariupol'

1.04

allows per match

Kremin'

1.42

Yarud Mariupol'

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kremin'+0.00on par

Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kremin' ↓

Yarud Mariupol' →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kremin' or draw

62%

Kremin' or Yarud Mariupol'

72%

Draw or Yarud Mariupol'

66%

Winning margin

Kremin' wins by 2+

14%

Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kremin' 1+ goals

68%

Kremin' 2+ goals

32%

Kremin' 3+ goals

11%

Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals

71%

Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals

35%

Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kremin' (draw refunded)

47%

Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kremin' at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.42 · 76 matches

Yarud Mariupol' away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kremin' attack 1.01 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.04 + Kremin' defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kremin' scores more

34%

level

28%

Yarud Mariupol' scores more

38%

Yarud Mariupol' at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yarud Mariupol' will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff