Yarud Mariupol' 0–1 Khust City: Result & Stats

Yarud Mariupol'

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Khust City

6/9/2023

Persha Liga · Relegation RoundStadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Yarud Mariupol'43%

×Draw26%

Khust City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yarud Mariupol'Expected goals in this matchKhust City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.16

Yarud Mariupol'

1.44

Khust City

1.16

Yarud Mariupol' creates 24% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

1.06

1.25

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Yarud Mariupol'

1.00

Khust City

1.06

allows per match

Yarud Mariupol'

1.25

Khust City

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par

Khust City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yarud Mariupol' ↓

Khust City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Yarud Mariupol' or draw

70%

Yarud Mariupol' or Khust City

74%

Draw or Khust City

57%

Winning margin

Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+

21%

Khust City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals

76%

Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals

42%

Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals

18%

Khust City 1+ goals

69%

Khust City 2+ goals

32%

Khust City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)

59%

Khust City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yarud Mariupol' at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Khust City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.00 + Khust City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Khust City attack 1.06 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yarud Mariupol' scores more

43%

level

26%

Khust City scores more

30%

Yarud Mariupol' at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yarud Mariupol' will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff