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Khust City vs Yarud Mariupol' — Persha Liga 2019

Khust City
Khust City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yarud Mariupol'
Yarud Mariupol'
6/3/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Relegation RoundStadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khust City33%
×Draw26%
Yarud Mariupol'41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khust City
1.27
Yarud Mariupol'
1.43

Yarud Mariupol' creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Khust City
1.29
Yarud Mariupol'
1.04

allows per match

Khust City
1.82
Yarud Mariupol'
1.26

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par
Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Yarud Mariupol' →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khust City or draw
59%
Khust City or Yarud Mariupol'
74%
Draw or Yarud Mariupol'
67%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+
14%
Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals
72%
Khust City 2+ goals
36%
Khust City 3+ goals
14%
Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals
76%
Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals
42%
Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)
45%
Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Yarud Mariupol' away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 1.29 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.04 + Khust City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Khust City scores more
33%
level
26%
Yarud Mariupol' scores more
41%

Yarud Mariupol' at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yarud Mariupol' will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Khust City 1–1 Yarud Mariupol'

Khust City and Yarud Mariupol' drew 1-1 in Persha Liga on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Karpaty in Khust.