Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yarud Mariupol' vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Persha Liga 2019

Yarud Mariupol'
Yarud Mariupol'
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
11/5/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 11Stadion Dinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Yarud Mariupol'28%
×Draw30%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yarud Mariupol'
0.91
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.17

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 36 away

creates per match

Yarud Mariupol'
1.00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.08

allows per match

Yarud Mariupol'
1.25
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.81

finishing

Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yarud Mariupol' ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Yarud Mariupol' or draw
58%
Yarud Mariupol' or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
70%
Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
72%

Winning margin

Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+
10%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals
60%
Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals
23%
Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals
6%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
69%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
33%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)
40%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yarud Mariupol' at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.00 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.08 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yarud Mariupol' scores more
28%
level
30%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
42%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Yarud Mariupol' 0–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Yarud Mariupol' 1-0 in Persha Liga on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dinaz in Demidov.