Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–0 Yarud Mariupol'

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yarud Mariupol'

9/16/2022

Persha Liga · Round 4Stadion im. H.A. Tolkocheeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi48%

×Draw25%

Yarud Mariupol'27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Epitsentr DunayivtsiExpected goals in this matchYarud Mariupol'

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.10

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.55

Yarud Mariupol'

1.10

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 41% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

1.84

creates per match

1.04

1.16

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.84

Yarud Mariupol'

1.04

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.16

Yarud Mariupol'

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Yarud Mariupol'+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Yarud Mariupol' →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw

73%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Yarud Mariupol'

75%

Draw or Yarud Mariupol'

52%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

24%

Yarud Mariupol' wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

79%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

46%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

20%

Yarud Mariupol' 1+ goals

67%

Yarud Mariupol' 2+ goals

30%

Yarud Mariupol' 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

64%

Yarud Mariupol' (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Yarud Mariupol' away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.84 + Yarud Mariupol' defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.55

Yarud Mariupol' attack 1.04 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

48%

level

25%

Yarud Mariupol' scores more

27%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff