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Yarmouk vs Al Shabab — Crown Prince Cup 2020

Yarmouk
Yarmouk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Shabab
Al Shabab
2/4/2022Crown Prince CupCrown Prince Cup · Preliminary RoundAl-Farwaniya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yarmouk41%
×Draw32%
Al Shabab27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yarmouk
1.04
Al Shabab
0.79

Yarmouk creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Yarmouk
0.33
Al Shabab
0.25

allows per match

Yarmouk
1.33
Al Shabab
1.75

finishing

Yarmouk+0.00on par
Al Shabab+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yarmouk ↓

Al Shabab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Yarmouk or draw
73%
Yarmouk or Al Shabab
68%
Draw or Al Shabab
59%

Winning margin

Yarmouk wins by 2+
16%
Al Shabab wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yarmouk 1+ goals
65%
Yarmouk 2+ goals
28%
Yarmouk 3+ goals
9%
Al Shabab 1+ goals
55%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
19%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Yarmouk (draw refunded)
60%
Al Shabab (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yarmouk at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Al Shabab away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yarmouk attack 0.33 + Al Shabab defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Shabab attack 0.25 + Yarmouk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yarmouk scores more
41%
level
32%
Al Shabab scores more
27%

Yarmouk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yarmouk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yarmouk vs Al Shabab

Al Shabab beat Yarmouk 1-0 in Crown Prince Cup on February 4, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Farwaniya Stadium in Ardiyah.