Yarmouk 1–0 Al Shabab: Result & Stats

Yarmouk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Shabab

12/24/2021

Premier League · Round 6Abdullah Al-Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Yarmouk35%

×Draw24%

Al Shabab41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YarmoukExpected goals in this matchAl Shabab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.61

Yarmouk

1.46

Al Shabab

1.61

Al Shabab creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 56 away

1.22

creates per match

0.91

2.31

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Yarmouk

1.22

Al Shabab

0.91

allows per match

Yarmouk

2.31

Al Shabab

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yarmouk+0.00on par

Al Shabab+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yarmouk ↓

Al Shabab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Yarmouk or draw

59%

Yarmouk or Al Shabab

76%

Draw or Al Shabab

65%

Winning margin

Yarmouk wins by 2+

16%

Al Shabab wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Yarmouk 1+ goals

77%

Yarmouk 2+ goals

43%

Yarmouk 3+ goals

18%

Al Shabab 1+ goals

80%

Al Shabab 2+ goals

48%

Al Shabab 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Yarmouk (draw refunded)

46%

Al Shabab (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yarmouk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.31 · 36 matches

Al Shabab away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.71 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yarmouk attack 1.22 + Al Shabab defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al Shabab attack 0.91 + Yarmouk defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yarmouk scores more

35%

level

24%

Al Shabab scores more

41%

Al Shabab at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff