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Yaracuyanos FC vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
FT
3 – 1
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
9/14/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 6Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC45%
×Draw26%
Yaracuy FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuyanos FC
1.46
Yaracuy FC
1.10

Yaracuyanos FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 47 away

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC
1.58
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC
0.90
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw
71%
Yaracuyanos FC or Yaracuy FC
74%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
55%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
22%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
77%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
43%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
18%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
67%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
30%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
61%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.58 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more
45%
level
26%
Yaracuy FC scores more
29%

Yaracuyanos FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Yaracuyanos FC 3–1 Yaracuy FC

Yaracuyanos FC beat Yaracuy FC 3-1 in Segunda División on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe).