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Yaracuy FC vs Yaracuyanos FC — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
FT
1 – 0
Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
8/10/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 1Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yaracuy FC44%
×Draw25%
Yaracuyanos FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.52
Yaracuyanos FC
1.23

Yaracuy FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 80 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Yaracuyanos FC
1.45

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Yaracuyanos FC
1.26

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
69%
Yaracuy FC or Yaracuyanos FC
75%
Draw or Yaracuyanos FC
56%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
22%
Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
78%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
45%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
20%
Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
71%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
35%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
59%
Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.45 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
44%
level
25%
Yaracuyanos FC scores more
31%

Yaracuy FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yaracuy FC vs Yaracuyanos FC

Yaracuy FC beat Yaracuyanos FC 1-0 in Segunda División on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe).