Yaracuyanos FC 2–0 Nueva Esparta: Result & Stats

Yaracuyanos FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nueva Esparta

8/7/2022

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 17Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Yaracuyanos FC55%

×Draw26%

Nueva Esparta18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yaracuyanos FCExpected goals in this matchNueva Esparta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.74

Yaracuyanos FC

1.50

Nueva Esparta

0.74

Yaracuyanos FC creates 103% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 38 away

1.58

creates per match

0.58

0.90

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Yaracuyanos FC

1.58

Nueva Esparta

0.58

allows per match

Yaracuyanos FC

0.90

Nueva Esparta

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuyanos FC ↓

Nueva Esparta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Yaracuyanos FC or draw

82%

Yaracuyanos FC or Nueva Esparta

74%

Draw or Nueva Esparta

45%

Winning margin

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+

29%

Nueva Esparta wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals

78%

Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals

44%

Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals

19%

Nueva Esparta 1+ goals

52%

Nueva Esparta 2+ goals

17%

Nueva Esparta 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)

75%

Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuyanos FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

Nueva Esparta away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.58 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nueva Esparta attack 0.58 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Yaracuyanos FC scores more

55%

level

26%

Nueva Esparta scores more

18%

Yaracuyanos FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff