Nueva Esparta 0–2 Yaracuyanos FC: Result & Stats

Nueva Esparta

FT

0 – 2

Yaracuyanos FC

4/2/2022

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Dynamo La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nueva Esparta35%

×Draw27%

Yaracuyanos FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nueva EspartaExpected goals in this matchYaracuyanos FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.24

Nueva Esparta

1.19

Yaracuyanos FC

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 80 away

1.13

creates per match

1.45

1.03

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Nueva Esparta

1.13

Yaracuyanos FC

1.45

allows per match

Nueva Esparta

1.03

Yaracuyanos FC

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nueva Esparta ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nueva Esparta or draw

63%

Nueva Esparta or Yaracuyanos FC

73%

Draw or Yaracuyanos FC

65%

Winning margin

Nueva Esparta wins by 2+

15%

Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nueva Esparta 1+ goals

70%

Nueva Esparta 2+ goals

33%

Nueva Esparta 3+ goals

12%

Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals

71%

Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals

35%

Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)

48%

Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nueva Esparta at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nueva Esparta attack 1.13 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.45 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nueva Esparta scores more

35%

level

27%

Yaracuyanos FC scores more

37%

Yaracuyanos FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff